Hey Joe Torre, Don’t Read This

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New England is in love with Jacoby Ellsbury. This is no secret. Jacoby is like our new toy—he’s shiny and pretty and new, so we love him. And he’s not J.D. Drew, which helps. But before we pin our hopes for another Red Sox World Series title on this kid, recognize that we are a ballsy opposing manager away from him being useless in the Sox quest.

Want to make him less effective? Knock him down.

In my limited experience of watching Ellsbury, I find myself thinking the same thing every time I watch him: Wow, can this kid hit outside pitches the other way. Then I put my Pax Arcana hat on and tried to think about why. Even without a storied career of D3 domination at Middlebury, I came to an answer.

 

 

This kid dives out over the plate as much as anyone in the league. Like Derek Jeter and Kevin Youkilis (my eastern bias is apparent at this point), as soon as the pitcher winds up, Ellsbury begins leaning out over the plate, and his elbows are usually hovering out over the inside corner, with his body falling toward the plate, by the time the pitch reaches him (Ed Note: This approach is precisely what leads to D3 domination). I haven’t seen him brushed back at all this year and he’s been hit by a pitch once in 114 plate appearances; if memory serves it was low and inside off his knee.

 

Now, I know this analysis is not exactly ground-breaking, and surely opposing managers are aware of this. But why don’t they do something with it?

 

 

If I’m managing against the Sox in the postseason, the first time Jacoby is up with nobody on, I give the pitcher the signal to plunk him on the shoulder. Maybe don’t even hit him, but at least throw something in on his hands that he has to dive out of the way from. It worked when Pedro Martinez brushed back Hideki Matsui in Game 5 of the ALCS in ’04: Matsui went 3-for-14 the rest of the series after hitting something like 113-for-114 in the first four games (I’m estimating). It’ll work even more against a kid who’s riding momentum and is over-confident based on an adoring fanbase and pitchers who have never seen him. Put a little more fear in him—make him think twice before he starts to cover the outside of the plate.

 

 

Of course, I don’t want this to happen. I want Jacoby to continue his folk-hero rise to stardom and be a major part of postseason success for the Sox. And thankfully, I don’t think it will happen: Joe Torre doesn’t have the stones, Mike Scioscia will be thinking too much about how many hit-and-runs he’s going to call, and Eric Wedge won’t have the opportunity to get to play the Sox after the Yankees score 40 runs in three games off him.

 

 

- Father Scott

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